With Bitcoin dominance over the crypto market showing subtle signs of weakening, crypto analysts are now split on when the true altcoin season will arrive.
According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin market cap has fallen nearly 42% from its all-time high of over $1.89 trillion, reached in early December last year. The rally at the time was driven by the hype surrounding Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory, which fueled hopes of a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto.
However, despite such measures now in place, the altcoin market hasn’t bounced back. Ethereum (ETH), the biggest altcoin, is still down 17.3% over the past month. Other major names like XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) have also taken hits, falling anywhere from 14% to 30%.
Altseason hinges on Bitcoin dominance
As the bearish momentum shows no sign of leaving the altcoin markets, the crypto community is watching closely for signs of the next altcoin season and when to dive in.
For altcoins to start rallying, Bitcoin dominance needs to drop; at least, that’s what several market experts are telling their followers.
According to pseudonymous trader Daan Crypto Trades, altcoin dominance has struggled to gain momentum due to Bitcoin’s continued strength and the growing stablecoin market.
“For altcoins to gain back dominance against BTC, stables, and the other majors, you need to see ETH/BTC gain some momentum first,” said Daan.
He explained that without Ethereum leading the way, a broader altcoin breakout is unlikely since most coins are built on Ethereum and many liquidity pools are ETH-denominated. A strong ETH performance, he added, tends to create the kind of wealth effect needed for the rest of the altcoin market to rally.
Daan emphasized that while short-lived altcoin rallies do happen, a sustained trend usually starts with high-timeframe confirmation, often following a retest after the initial breakout. Until then, he suggests patience or strategic dollar-cost averaging into fundamentally strong projects.
In a statement to crypto.news, Georgii Verbitskii, founder of TYMIO, agreed that altcoins are currently in a “waiting game.”
According to him, “a true altseason, in the classic sense where Bitcoin consolidates and altcoins rally independently, can be expected only after Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time high.”
Until then, he believes investors will keep viewing altcoins as the riskier side of crypto, which is why big money is likely to remain on the sidelines for now.
Echoing similar sentiments, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts believes the market will see “one last rally” this cycle, possibly by June, but only those with real utility and active networks are likely to benefit.
“Activity drives prices,” Coutts said, noting that only “quality altcoins” will see meaningful recoveries.
Meanwhile, technical analyst Rekt Capital argues that altseason is inevitable but will only begin once Bitcoin dominance starts to decline, likely from around the 71% mark, according to a chart he shared. When writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.1%.
Analyst signals altseason, but key indicators disagree
Market commentator Sensei suggests Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked, pointing to a rising wedge pattern on the BTC Dominance chart, a formation that analysts view as early signs of a potential reversal. See below.
Despite the optimism shared by some analysts, altcoin season isn’t here yet, at least not according to some of the crypto industry’s go-to indicators.
For instance, Capriole’s Altcoin Speculation Index, which tracks investor appetite for high-risk altcoins, has dropped to 12%, down over 50% since December. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which compares altcoin performance to Bitcoin over 90 days, sits at just 14 out of 100, signalling a market still firmly in “Bitcoin Season.”
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